This will require movement away from a blind reliance on variables for their own sake to a fuller understanding of how these variables relate to the phenomenon of sexual offending. Thus single variables, even those as important as a history of sex offending, are of limited use in predicting sex offence recidivism.
But is this causal in nature, or is unemployment simply an indication that something else is not right? Or is the prediction of sexual reoffending in specific cases little more than a gamble based on an imperfect understanding of the relevant odds? Even when one looks at studies of apparently higher risk offenders, reoffence rates remain relatively low.
Library Sexual Offence Recidivism:.
Unless all sex offenders are to be incarcerated for indeterminate lengths of time, some means to separate higher from lower risk men is clearly necessary. Part of the Probation and Parole Populations Series. Their analysis, making use of path analytic and similar statistical techniques, demonstrates well the richness that can emerge when one moves away from looking at single, static variables.
Weapon Use. Part of the Justice Expenditure and Employment Series. Crime Type White Collar Crime.
An interim statistics release between the and bulletins was also published in October Home Crime, justice and law Justice system transparency. Employment and Expenditure. Similarly, those with more past offences have demonstrated their willingness to carry on with their behaviours in spite of the risk of apprehension, whereas in those who have only one or two such convictions this willingness will be present in only some.
Thus, whilst the base rate of the behaviour underlying sex offending may not be high, it is persistent. For example, in a sample of over sex offenders who had committed more serious offences i. Marshall and Barbaree , for example, found that unofficial records and contacts uncovered 2.
There are, of course, well-known difficulties in interpreting reoffending data, and it might be argued that the reoffences of sex offenders are less visible than those of other types of offender. If anything, the numbers of undetected offences by non-sex offenders are probably greater in relation to crimes with higher base rates such as theft and general violence, particular given the fact that once an individual has been convicted of a sex crime he becomes known to the system..